The Market Breakdown©
Inside the Market: Sun Valley Resort Snapshot – Q4 2025
Covering September through November
The fall real estate season in the Sun Valley–Ketchum area brought low inventory, steady demand, and sharp differences between neighborhoods. Below is an easy-to-digest look at how each sub-market performed as we closed out Q4.
Ketchum Market Trends – Single-Family Homes in the Sun Valley Real Estate Market
Inventory fell again this quarter, dropping 20.6% month-over-month and 10.9% year-over-year. This confirms a steady tightening in available homes.
Closings slowed in the short term, down 34.3% MoM, but longer trends looked healthier. Sales were up 4.5% YoY and up 13.3% YTD.
Pending contracts dipped 8.3% MoM, and were sharply lower MTD. Even so, pendings posted strong gains over the longer view—up 22.2% YoY and 25.9% for the quarter.
Takeaway: Short-term activity softened, but quarterly and YTD numbers show steady demand and a strong underlying market.
Ketchum Condos & Townhomes – Q4 Activity
Inventory remained tight, dropping 7.4% MoM and 27.3% YoY, with even deeper declines on a mid-term basis.
Closings fell 30.8% MoM, but rose 12.5% YoY. Year-to-date sales remained a standout performer, up 31%.
Pendings also slipped month-over-month yet stayed well above last year—up 20% YoY and 37.2% for the quarter.
Takeaway: Short-term movement slowed, but condos and townhomes remain one of the strongest segments in Ketchum.
Warm Springs Housing Trends – Single-Family Homes
Inventory dropped sharply—33.3% MoM and 75% YoY—creating one of the tightest supply environments in the valley.
There were no sales in October or November. Year-over-year monthly sales fell to zero, and YTD closings dropped 66.7% (6 vs. 18).
Pendings also recorded no new activity. Quarterly pendings fell 100%, and YTD pendings were down 56.2%.
Takeaway: Extremely low inventory and minimal turnover led to steep declines in both sales and pendings.
Warm Springs Condos & Townhomes Update
Inventory saw a slight lift, rising 50% MoM, though levels remain low compared to last year.
Sales doubled month-over-month and matched last year’s pace. However, they fell 16.7% for the quarter and 4.8% YTD.
Pendings rose from 0 to 3 MoM, but quarterly and YTD numbers trended lower.
Takeaway: Activity ticked up in the short run, but longer-term momentum remained soft due to limited supply and fewer new contracts.
Sun Valley Market Highlights – Single-Family Homes
Inventory fell 45.5% MoM, but rose 50% YoY, offering buyers a bit more choice than last year.
Sales held steady month-over-month and improved from zero closings last year. YTD sales rose 57.1% (11 vs. 7).
Pendings dropped to zero MoM, but YTD pendings doubled.
Takeaway: Monthly activity is quiet, but strong YTD gains show that buyer interest remains solid.
Sun Valley Condos & Townhomes Performance
Inventory rose 40% MoM, though levels remain far below last year.
Sales slowed in the short term—down 75% MoM and 50% YoY—but the bigger picture tells a different story. Quarterly closings were up 66.7%, and YTD sales more than doubled (+120%, 33 vs. 15).
Pendings also fell to zero MoM and YoY, yet quarterly pendings rose and YTD pendings jumped 72.2%.
Takeaway: Despite quiet recent months, this category shows some of the strongest YTD growth in the entire valley.
Elkhorn Housing Market – Single-Family Homes
Inventory tightened again, down 20% MoM and 20% YoY.
Sales stayed flat month-over-month but remained slightly above last year. Still, quarterly sales fell 60%, and YTD sales dropped 66.7% (5 vs. 15).
Pendings reflected the same trend—stable MoM but down for the quarter and YTD.
Takeaway: Turnover in Elkhorn’s single-family market remains low, with notable declines in longer-term activity.
Elkhorn Condos & Townhomes Overview
Inventory dipped 14.7% MoM, with short-term supply continuing to tighten overall.
Sales rose 25% MoM and held steady YoY. Quarterly closings softened, but YTD sales increased 24.4% (51 vs. 41).
Pendings were mixed—down MoM but up 200% YoY, 22.2% for the quarter, and 21.1% YTD.
Takeaway: Even with a softer monthly pulse, this segment shows strong demand and healthy year-to-date performance.
Final Takeaways
Fall 2025 brought tight inventory across nearly every neighborhood in the Sun Valley–Ketchum resort market. Warm Springs, Old Sun Valley, and Elkhorn saw the steepest declines in supply. Month-to-month sales were mixed, but year-to-date closings stayed strong—especially for condos and townhomes, which continue to outperform single-family homes.
Pending activity varied sharply by location. Ketchum and Elkhorn condos posted strong momentum, while Warm Springs and Elkhorn single-family homes lagged.
Overall, low supply and steady buyer interest continue to shape the market. These conditions point toward a competitive winter season with increasing pressure on well-priced listings.
📬 Thinking about buying or selling before ski season?
I’m happy to walk you through the latest data for your neighborhood. Let’s connect.
